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Upcoming Trouble for Airlines Could Change How You Fly
An upcoming pilot shortage in the U.S. is being exacerbated by a new flight-training law, and it could mean the end of regional airlines, changing forever how Americans fly.

By Alec Hamilton

 
Zac Lewis never pictured himself in food service. He never dreamt of the day he’d bring four plates of burgers to an average Midwestern family as a living. He never even envisioned life on the ground. He dreamt of a career in the clouds — literally.

He wanted to be a pilot.

But the 22-year-old college senior from Mankato, Minn., discovered the reality of the industry wasn’t so glamorous. Entry-level flight jobs make about the same as a fry-cook at McDonald’s, even though there’s a generation of pilots starting to retire and a severe lack of replacements. In an odd turn of events, Lewis found himself taking a job waiting tables because in today’s market, he will earn a better living on the ground than he would in the air.

Old Pilots Retiring and Young Pilots Can’t Get Hired

A perfect storm of circumstances is brewing, one that might threaten young pilots’ ability to take off.The mandatory retirement age for pilots is 65. The majority of pilots working today are nearing that milestone, and with their departure, a slew of vacancies are expected to turn up in the next decade. Jim Higgins, an associate professor of aviation at the University of North Dakota, said that as of 2012, there were 72,000 employed pilots in the U.S. A third of them are expected to retire in 10 years.

Normally, though, regional pilots — those who fly short routes between smaller cities on America’s lesser carriers — swoop in and take those positions. It’s the airline equivalent of moving from the minors to the big leagues. But Higgins said there are currently only 18,000 regional pilots. He’s expecting roughly 24,000 vacancies.And not all regional pilots are cut out for the majors.

“You don’t have to do a complicated mathematical analysis to see that there will be more pilots at major airlines who are retiring over the next 10 years than there are regional pilots that exist today,” he said. Lewis, set to graduate from Minnesota State University-Mankato’s aviation program, would love to be hired by a major airline, or even a regional one. But unfortunately, a new training law makes it nearly impossible.

The problem stems from the implementation of the Airline Safety and Federal Airline Administration Extension Act of 2010, which went into effect in 2013. It was established as a direct result of an air accident in February 2009 when a Continental Express regional flight crashed on approach to Buffalo, N.Y., killing 50 people. The crash was the result of pilot error. The families of the victims came together and lobbied Congress for changes in airline safety. They got their wish. The extension act drastically increases the number of hours and training a pilot must complete to achieve an airline transport pilot certificate (ATP). Lewis will have to log more than 1,500 hours of flight time to earn his. That’s more than five times what was previously required for a commercial certificate at the regional level. “It completely altered my post-graduation plans,” Lewis said.

Before the law passed, Lewis was 25 hours away from qualifying for a typical, entry-level job with a regional airline. To get those extra hours he now needs, he could work as a flight instructor. He could build up time while helping the next generation of pilots get their wings. He just wouldn’t be able to afford anything.

“The problem for me is that flight instructors at NorthStar, which is the company that has the contracts (at Mankato), pays $16 an hour,” Lewis said.

“So for me to go through and pay for three more additional licenses to come out of college to make $16 an hour when right now I wait tables and make about $25 an hour. The incentive isn’t there.”

Higgins acknowledges regional airline industry pay rates, especially in the first year, are very low (around $20,000), and that low pay paired with the licensing changes is pushing possible students away. But the airline industry hasn’t seen a huge jump in the number of retirees just yet.

They know it’s coming, and Higgins said they’ll be hit hard in the near future, but for the time being, they aren’t increasing wages to compensate for the new reality.

“We’ve measured that we’ve already lost eight percent of future pilots that would have gone into the airline industry and they specifically left because of this law,” Higgins said. “And we have another 32 percent who are reconsidering their plans because of this law. So literally 40 percent of our future pilot supply is at risk, and we’re already in a critical shortage.”

Regional Airlines in Smaller Communities Will Disappear

Every hour there are hundreds of planes heading in and out of New York’s various airports. They are flying around the country and around the globe. But the Abraham Lincoln Capital Airport in Springfield, Ill.: On any given weekday, 10 or fewer planes may take off — from the state’s capital. And if the coming pilot shortage isn’t addressed soon there might be even fewer.

“I think what you’re going to see is that the small communities of the U.S., probably communities that have 50,000 people or less and right now have a small regional service, maybe four-to-six flights a day, many of those communities are likely to lose that service in the next couple of years because there simply won’t be enough pilots,” Higgins said. “When that happens there will be a net effect of an increase in airfare for everyone because if you live in one of those communities you’re now going to have to regionalize and drive up to two hours to the nearest airport to get your air service.”

So say goodbye to airports like those in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, St. Cloud, Minn., or Eau Claire, Wis. Passengers will be forced to drive for hours before they can even begin their air travels at the nearest major hub.

Ross Warner, a regional airline pilot and instructor, is equally pessimistic about the future of his own industry.

“I personally expect the major airlines to take the flights back and for the regionals to go away,” Warner said.

Higgins predicts trouble for the major airlines 10 to 20 years down the road.

Major airlines draw up to 40 percent of their revenue from regional airlines as they rely on the regionals’ passenger loads. He says the major airlines will not be able to stand a loss of almost half their revenue for very long, and changes will have to be made.What those changes will be remains to be seen.

So with an upcoming pilot shortage but also little incentive to become a pilot, what are Zac Lewis’ plans for the future?

“For me, my path the last four years was to become a flight instructor, fly for a regional airline and get a fancy job flying for an airline,” Lewis said. “Obviously, now things have changed, I’ve already been talking to officer recruiters to go military because once I have my degree, I’ll be able to go in as an officer, and the pilot shortage affects the armed forces just as much as it’s affecting the private sector, so that’s nice to have in my back pocket, but it’s completely altered my plan of action.

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Photo courtesy of Zac Lewis

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